会员登录 - 用户注册 - 设为首页 - 加入收藏 - 网站地图 Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut!

Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut

时间:2025-06-11 03:55:19 来源:百无一能网 作者:现货金 阅读:285次
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea

Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading

The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.

Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.

Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.

Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.

The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero

Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?

Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.

Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.

(责任编辑:游戏)

上一篇:火币网充值转账
下一篇:怎么注册币团
推荐内容
  • e火币
  • HTX Ventures 最新研报丨加密角度看 2024 美国大选:可能是从严监管封杀到扶持创新的转折点
  • 深证股票开头
  • 黑户比较容易借钱的app有哪些?要不查征信的贷款产品。
  • 多空飞弹中的黄金逆袭:下一个爆点在哪里?|黄金头条
  • 马上金融的借款利息应该怎么计算啊?